The Climate-Conflict-Displacement Nexus: The Case of Lebanon (2019–2025)

Abstract

This study examines the nexus of climate, conflict, and displacement in Lebanon, portraying the state as an environment where multiple systemic risks interact.
It employs a qualitative, one-sided case study design and utilizes a theory-driven process tracing approach within the framework of Human-Environmental-Climate Security (HECS). It draws on secondary data from international organizations (World Bank, UNHCR, UNDP), social perception surveys (ARK & UNDP, 2017–2024), government strategies, and peer-reviewed literature to trace the causal mechanisms associated with governance failures, environmental degradation, and social tensions in Lebanon during the period 2017–2024.
The study’s findings indicate that the nexus of climate, conflict, and displacement in Lebanon is primarily mediated by state failure. Scarcity is not absolute but rather politically produced through decades of corruption, infrastructure neglect, and elite appropriation of resources. Environmental degradation increased from 3.2% of GDP in 2005 to 10.9% in 2023, with the growing burden of Syrian displacement accounting for approximately 30% of this cost.

The study concludes that effective mitigation strategies must shift from an emergency humanitarian response approach to structural recovery, integrated resource governance, and a rights-based approach to managing cross-border mobility. Without fundamental governance reform, Lebanon will remain trapped in a feedback loop, where each climate shock could become a potential trigger for renewed conflict and displacement.